New U.S. home sales may jump 30 percent next year

Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- New U.S. home sales may jump 30 percent next year, buoyed by low mortgage rates and a “greater than 50 percent probability” that Congress will extend a tax credit for first-time buyers, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.

New home sales in California will lead as property values rise and transactions climb to more than 525,000 nationally, analysts led by Joshua Pollard wrote in a note to investors. The firm raised its recommendation for D.R. Horton Inc., Meritage Homes Corp., Toll Brothers Inc. and M.D.C. Holdings Inc.

“Phrases like ‘the worst is well behind us’ and ‘things remain encouraging’ capture the mood of many constituents we met with on residential real estate,” Pollard said after visiting California. “The mood was much more negative on commercial real estate.”

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to purchase or refinance a home rose 13 percent in the week ended Sept. 18. Sales of single-family new homes in July were on pace to be 433,000 this year after declining for three years, the Department of Commerce reported Aug. 26. Builders sold a record 1.28 million properties in 2005, the peak of the U.S. housing boom.

The Goldman Sachs forecast is based on the assumption Congress will extend or amend an $8,000 tax credit for first- time homebuyers that was instituted to rescue the housing market from free-fall. The credit is scheduled to expire Nov. 30.

No ‘Double-Dip’

“We give a greater than 50 percent probability of a federal tax credit extension which should allay fears of a ‘double dip’ in housing,” Pollard wrote.

Pollard added Scottsdale, Arizona-based Meritage to his “buy/attractive” list. He also rates Fort Worth-based D.R. Horton, Denver-based M.D.C. and Horsham, Pennsylvania-based Toll Brothers as “buy/attractive.

Time is running out

Attention you first time buyers!!! You only have about 10 weeks to take advantage of the $8000 first time buyer credit!!!!!!

Real Estate Outlook: A Bright Market - Housing numbers are headed in just one direction, and at least for the time being, that's better and better. Pending home sales jumped again - up by 3.2% for the month of July. Following six straight months of increases, the pending sales index is now at its highest level since June of 2007, and is 12% above a year ago. Last week, Freddie Mac's home price index showed national prices up by an average 2.7%. Clear Capital's home price index, which digs into thousands of Zip codes and small neighborhoods, reported even larger gains - 7.3% during the period July 27th to August 25th. Last week, average rates on thirty-year fixed-rate mortgages declined to just below 5.2%, according to the Mortgage Bankers association's national survey. The Mortgage Bankers Association's top forecaster, Orawin Velz, continues to predict that the recession will be over shortly - or already is over.
http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20090908_realestateoutlook.htm

Job growth, tourism bright spots for region's economy,

an article from The Denver Post, reports that solid job gains and encouraging tourism indicators are good news for Denver's economy. In May, metro Denver's labor market numbers fared better than state and national trends as 12,000 jobs were added. The increase was basically consistent with seasonal norms. If forecasts for the just completed Independence Day travel hold true, Colorado and the West may be one of the only U.S. regions to report an increase in July 4th tourism this year. "Colorado consumers are definitely feeling better about their situations overall. We're seeing a trend that many citizens are exploring Colorado and spending their vacation money locally, which is very positive for our businesses," explained Metro Denver EDC Chief economist Patty Silverstein.

http://www.9news.com/money/article.aspx?storyid=119153&catid=344

The city of Denver will offer free building permits through the first half of June

The city of Denver will offer free building permits through the first half of June for home-improvement projects as a way to encourage economy-boosting renovation work.
The free permits are for common improvement projects involving single-family homes and duplexes.
They will be available June 1-15 and are valid for 180 days, the city announced Friday. Permits will be issued on the spot to homeowners or their contractors.
Building-permit fees normally range from $20 to several thousand dollars, depending on the value of the project.
"Now is a great time for Denver property owners to take advantage of construction deals to complete home improvement projects they may be putting off," Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper said. "Issuing free permits is one way the city can help make these types of projects easier to complete."

Denver Poised for a Rebound

Denver tops on 'Today' show list of cities poised for real-estate rebound, an article from The Denver Business Journal, reports that Denver was named America's No. 1 city on the verge of recovery from the housing slump in a segment on NBC's "Today" show yesterday. Denver more than any other U.S. city is "clearly on a rebound," said real estate expert Barbara Corcoran, a regular guest on the show. "Everything about Denver is pointing up, up, up," said Corcoran. Denver, Corcoran noted, has "a vibrant downtown, it has a high employment base, it has educated people, it has youth, [and] it has one of the biggest park systems in the country."
http://denver.bizjournals.com/denver/stories/2009/05/18/daily31.html

Banks hold back seized homes

an article from The Denver Post, reports that slower pacing is helping to drive up REO bidding. Bidding wars occur frequently for REO properties, especially those priced under $200,000. Some even attract as many as 20 or more offers. Lenders are slowing releasing their repossessed foreclosures back onto the market rather than flooding the market. According to Michael Clarkson of Mile High Home Hunter Realty, part of the strategy is to "price them low and dirty to get people to come in and bid." Ed Cluff, an investor who has purchased several hundred REO properties since 1979, believes the holdback strategy is working for lenders. "I've seen a lot of price escalation, particularly in north Aurora, Thornton and Montbello."
http://www.denverpost.com/businessheadlines/ci_12331999